The Greatest value investment of all time

There is one value investment that generates massive gains while remaining immune to market cycles, bubbles, fads, crashes, rates or the economy. It is relentlessly undervalued and, judging by the obesity secular bull market that continues longer than the great bond bull, shows few signs of trading at a premium anytime soon. The trend is not your friend. I am talking about good nutrition –...

The Soaring Twenties

A new decade begins in a couple months. Sure, take time to reflect on your life and the Teens that are ending but don’t spend too much energy there. What’s past is done. Next… Instead, think about the next decade and begin visualizing your potential reality. What will make you happy? Who do you aspire to be? What can you accomplish? What do you give up finally or avoid? You can...

Bullish Price Behavior Coupled with Negative Sentiment

I love doing these podcasts with JC. We do these phone calls all the time anyway and so when he tapes them, its just a new dimension that allows others to eavesdrop and reply if they’d like via social or email. We’ve been doing shorter ones too which I like better. I can’t listen to the 90 minute podcasts and I have nothing to say that takes that long. Here JC and I talk about...

I finally FIGURED out why Halloween Has always been my favorite holiday

When I was a kid I thought it was just the candy and hijinks. Maybe it was then, but now it’s much more… We’re a culture that avoids the reality of aging and death. From the collective perception of youthfulness as beauty to the ascendance of plastic surgery and Botox to the massive healthcare spending on maximal therapies for those who have lived long and full lives, we want to...

that time duke ellington was more wu-tang than wu-tang

You probably know the story of Wu-Tang Clan’s Once Upon a Time in Shaolin. Wu-Tang recorded an entire album, printed one copy and auctioned it for millions to the highest bidder with a stipulation that the music would not be commercialized. So they made a few million bucks and handed the music over to a biotech used car salesman who might still be in prison(?). Few, though, know this story...

don’t get sucked in

There are two worlds. The one out there and the one right here inside and around you. The one out there can go totally nuts sometimes. Lewis Carroll shit. Now is one of those times. It’s magnified too given the way access to news and the opinions of others has accelerated along with Moore’s Law. It’s easy to understand why the average news consumer is an emotional wreck these...

Cognitive Theory of noise: introduction

I brought Eight Fat Swine Blog back, in part, to flesh out a comprehensive model of investor experience over the course of a bunch of posts and podcasts. In the coming weeks, I’ll lay out the model in detail and categorize related posts under the CTN Archive Here. All feedback is welcome on Twitter @ppearlman or via email at ppearlman@gmail.com.   Introduction The Cognitive Theory of Noise (CTN)...

Gamifying longevity

I want to stay healthy and live as long as possible. I could high score above 100 years but I could also die tomorrow or maybe even later today – thwack by a bus or some other incidental calamity. Death and Decision Making Under Uncertainty Some critical factors related to lifespan are completely out of my hands and left to chance while other factors are within my control. You can think of...

Understanding and Helping PermaBear syndrome

I do an occasional podcast with my pal JC hosting called Money Game. Yesterday, he asked me about the case of experienced market participants who have an ingrained bearish bias that affects performance negatively. In last week’s post, I quoted Mowrer’s description of the neurotic paradox – how people sometimes repeat behaviors that are harmful. It is good context for the current...

CTN1: Let’s Begin Here …

O.H. Mowrer was a behavioral psychologist of some distinction during the middle part of the 20th century. He is not a central character of the CTN model I am going to lay out on this blog over the course of the next weeks and months but he does have a money quote that gets us thinking about similarities between irrational market participant behaviors and self-defeating experiences related to...